Have the Phillies improved enough to make up those twelve games? Can the Mets repeat their excellent record of one year ago?
The Phillies starting lineup looks much like it did at the close of the 2006 season with changes at catcher and third base.
The Infield Remains the Strength of the Phillies
The infield includes National League MVP Ryan Howard at first, the league's top second baseman in Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins at shortstop and newcomer Wes Helms at third.Much has been made of Rollins' work during the off-season to become a better lead-off man. His spring stats show fewer strikeouts and more walks. If Rollins can keep this up during the season, we should see better run production on this already strong offensive team.
Helms appears to be an upgrade over Abraham Nunez at third. Nunez struggled most of 2006 in the role of a starter. Helms is a much steadier hitter but his fielding is a question mark. Nunez moves into the role of a reserve and bench player where he is joined by the team's spring sensation Greg Dobbs who led the Phillies in rbi's in spring training.
Catching - Barajas Replaces Lieberthal, Coste Looks to Odd Man Out
At catcher, newcomer Rod Barajas takes over for Mike Lieberthal who showed last season that his days as a starter were done. While Barajas won't produce exciting offensive numbers, the team hopes that his experience handling pitchers will make for a big upgrade. Carlos Ruiz takes over as full-time backup and his ability remains a big question mark.The odd man out seems to be Chris Coste which is a real shame. Coste proved to be one of the team's most reliable bench players in 2006 where he had many key hits coming down the stretch. Apparently last year's 33-year-old rookie is now the team's aging 34-year-old-veteran.
The Outfield - The Starters Return with New Backups
The outfield looks much the same as it did at the end of the season. Shane Victorino is now a fixture in right field. Aaron Rowand returns from his injury plagued season in center field. Despite many efforts to trade him, Pat Burrell returns in left field and once again faces the unenviable task of batting behind the often walked Ryan Howard.The three starters are backed up by newcomers Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Both Bourn and Werth appear to be adequate, if unexciting backups.
Starting Pitching Already Stung by the Injury Bug
The Phillies starting pitching was supposed to be their strong point entering the season. The largely reworked starting rotation of Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia looked great on paper entering spring training. Myers and Moyer look like they're both set for a strong season.Hamels and Eaton struggled mightily during the spring giving up plenty of home runs. Garcia begins the season on the disabled list. The Phillies' efforts to trade starter Jon Lieber for a set-up man met with no takers. After being informed that he would start the season in the bullpen, Lieber suddenly came down with a pulled muscle and he too will begin the season on the disabled list.
Relief Pitching Could Be a Mess
Relief pitching was a big question going into spring training and despite a solid spring by the crew that made the 25-man roster, lots of questions remain. Tom Gordon is the closer, but few believe he can make it through a season without injury. There is no one there to take over his role.It appears Ryan Madson will, for now, be the set-up man, a role in which he showed little success last season. The remainder of the bullpen consists of Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey, Geoff Geary, Zack Segovia and sole lefthander Matt Smith. At this point no one can predict how this group will perform during the season. I suspect that we'll see lots of roster moves in the bullpen as the season goes on.
The Coaching Staff Sees Several Changes
Manager Charlie Manuel returns for a third season with the Phillies. While his return is a surprise to some, he is well liked by his players and deserves another shot.The balance of the coaching staff consists of hitting coach Milt Thompson, pitching coach Rich Dubee, bullpen coach Ramon Henderson, first base coach Davey Lopes, bench coach Jimy Williams, catching instructor Mick Billmeyer and third base coach Steve Smith. If the Phillies falter, look for Jimy Williams to take over as manager.
Outlook for 2007
So, the question remains, did the Phillies improve themselves enough to catch the New York Mets? As the season begins, the answer, quite frankly, appears to be no.Offensively the team should score plenty of runs, but that wasn't their problem in 2006 either. Having Pat Burrell bat behind Ryan Howard is scary and is likely to lead to many walks for Howard in 2007. It was clear that the number of intentional walks down the stretch in 2006 bothered Howard and affected his September production.
As always seems to be the case, starting pitching still is a big question as is the bullpen. Spring injuries and poor performance by several of the starters is worrisome. The bullpen is a mess with an injury prone closer, no strong set-up man and only one left handed reliever.
I think that it will take 94 wins to prevail in the National League East. That means nine more wins or nine fewer losses for the Phillies. I don't see it. I'm looking at an 88 win season which should get them second place and may get them a wild card slot. In many ways it looks much like 2006 all over again.